The Case For Embracing Optimism

Reflecting on Hannah Ritchie's "An End to Doomerism"

As we start a new year, my thoughts return to Hannah Ritchie's 2022 essay "An End to Doomerism" which explores the concept of "impatient optimism" and challenges the pessimism pervasive in our national discourse. Ritchie argues for the benefits of replacing widespread negative attitudes with realistic optimism to foster innovation, progress, and problem-solving.

In her essay, Ritchie contends that while pessimism might seem intelligent, it often impedes solutions and progress. It’s important not to confuse criticism with pessimism; constructive criticism is vital for growth. Today's challenges and opportunities call for a proactive, problem-solving mindset.

Our media is rife with relentless pessimism. Negative headlines have soared over the past 20 years. An analysis of sentiment and emotion in news media headlines reveals a striking increase in gloomy headlines, particularly in publications the authors defined as "right-leaning” and “left-leaning.” The sentiment and emotion conveyed in these headlines plays a significant role in shaping the reader's perception of the article's content. As readers perceive the world more pessimistically, their demand for content that reinforces this belief increases, provoking a downward spiral where the news media in turn serves up yet more negative content.

A 2021 research paper "Why Is All COVID-19 News Bad News?" found a significant bias towards pessimism in U.S. major media outlet coverage of COVID, with 87% of stories being negative in tone. This contrasted with non-U.S. major sources and scientific journals, which had negativity rates of 50% and 64% respectively. Interestingly, this negativity persisted even in areas where there were positive developments, such as school re-openings and vaccine trials. The study found that news stories Americans chose to share on Facebook skewed to pessimism, suggesting that national news media are responding to reader demand for negativity. This negativity bias has significantly shaped the tone and content of news media, resulting in a preponderance of negative news.

Ritchie criticizes an "optimism stigma," the societal tendency to view optimism as naïve or simplistic. There is research showing young adults with higher optimism and lower pessimism have higher reasoning skills. In middle-aged adults, higher pessimism was correlated to lower scores on memory tests.

Other research suggests that optimism is linked to several positive outcomes, including longer lifespans and improved emotional well-being. A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences involving over 70,000 participants found that the most optimistic individuals lived 11 to 15 percent longer and had significantly higher odds of living past 85 years old. Additionally, the National Institute on Aging reported on studies indicating that optimistic women across various racial and ethnic groups tend to live longer, with lifestyle factors explaining only part of this link. In men, optimism was associated with fewer negative emotions, partly due to reduced exposure to stress. These studies highlight the potential health benefits of a positive mindset, suggesting that optimism could be a key factor in promoting healthier aging and emotional well-being.​

There is a difference between blind optimism, the naïve belief that things will always improve on their own, and what Ritchie terms "impatient optimism" - a proactive, problem-solving mindset, a theme that aligns closely with my own beliefs. In my teaching, I stress the importance of approaching challenges with a creative, problem-solving mindset, every challenge has a range of alternative solutions. Business and science are replete with success stories of individuals who, driven by a belief in the possibility of success, have overcome numerous failures to achieve breakthroughs. This mindset is not just about having a positive outlook; it's about actively seeking solutions and being willing to take calculated risks.

There are detrimental effects to "doomerism," a worldview characterized by extreme pessimism and a belief that major negative outcomes, such as societal collapse, environmental disasters, or irreversible global problems, are inevitable. This outlook often leads to feelings of fatalism, where individuals believe that no effective actions can be taken to prevent or mitigate these negative outcomes.

Doomerism is particularly prevalent in the context of climate change, where it manifests as a deep-seated belief that environmental catastrophe is inevitable and irreversible. This perspective often leads to a paralyzing sense of futility among individuals and communities. People who subscribe to this view may believe that, given the scale and severity of climate change, any efforts to mitigate or adapt to its effects are essentially pointless. This kind of thinking can be detrimental, as it undermines the motivation to pursue practices that will reduce our environmental footprint. The narrative of impending doom overshadows the significant strides being made in renewable energy, conservation efforts, and technological innovations aimed at reducing carbon footprints. By focusing exclusively on worst-case scenarios and discounting the capacity for human ingenuity and collective action, doomerism in the context of climate change not only exacerbates feelings of despair and apathy, but also hampers the very progress that is essential for addressing this global challenge.

As we plunge into 2024, each of us should realistically face our challenges, whether in our personal lives, businesses, or broader societal issues, but approach them with the confidence that solutions are possible and progress is achievable.

Wishing you a New Year filled with hope, progress, and the courage to pursue positive change.

Peace through understanding.

Hannah Ritchie is a Scottish data scientist and science communicator who works at Our World in Data and the University of Oxford. She specializes in using data visualizations and interactive tools to make complex information accessible focusing on global development and environmental issues, such as climate change, food systems, energy, and health. Her book, “Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet,” was just published on January 9.

I highly recommend Our World In Data as source of objective information on various political, economic, health, and environmental aspects of our world. I rely on Our World in Data because it uses credible sources and clear visualizations to communicate complex information about the world.